Three years after Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi declared the ‘Caliphate’, the group has lost more than 60 percent of its territory and 80 percent of its revenue, according to new analysis released by IHS Markit (Nasdaq: INFO), a world leader in critical information, analytics and solutions.
The Islamic State’s caliphate spanned an estimated 36,200 km2 on 26 June 2017, roughly the size of Belgium or the US state of Maryland, according to the latest analysis from Conflict Monitor at IHS Markit. This marks a 40 percent reduction in territory since the start of 2017, and a 60 percent reduction overall since our first estimate in January 2015, when the jihadist group controlled 90,800 km2 in Iraq and Syria.
The Islamic State’s average monthly revenue has fallen dramatically from $81 million in Q2 2015 to $16 million in Q2 2017, a reduction of 80 percent. This includes a steady decline in all of the group’s financial streams: oil production and smuggling, taxation and confiscation, and other illicit activities. Average monthly oil revenue is down 88 percent, and income from taxation and confiscation has fallen by 79 percent, compared to our initial estimate in 2015