Muslims could make up 14% of Europe’s population by 2050 – nearly triple the current share, in a “high” migration scenario projecting the record flow of refugees into Europe between 2014 and 2016 to continue indefinitely into the future with the same religious composition, Pew Research Center finds. There will be around 75 million Muslims in Europe by the middle of the century despite the current 25 million.
Even if all migration into Europe were to immediately and permanently stop – a “zero migration” scenario – the Muslim population of Europe still would be expected to rise from the current level of 4.9% to 7.4% by the year 2050. This is because Muslims are younger (by 13 years, on average) and have higher fertility (one child more per woman, on average) than other Europeans.
In a “Medium” migration scenario assuming that all refugee flows will stop as of mid-2016, Muslims could reach 11.2% of Europe’s population in 2050.