Spanish elections: Socialists lead but Vox could be the real surprise

With the third general election in less than three and a half years, Spanish citizens are called to vote for their new national government on April 28.

According to the pollster 40dB published by El Pais, the Socialist Party (PSOE) led by prime Minister Pedro Sanchez is shown as possible winner in the upcoming election, yet falling short of the absolute majority. PSOE would earn 122 seats, representing 27.1% of the vote, and would be eight percentage points ahead of the Popular Party (PP), which would have 76 representatives in the lower house.

The survey shows that the collapse of the two-party system in Spain will force the two bigger forces to look for the support of other regionalist parties in order to have the majority to form a government. Predicting future alliances is quite a difficult task before an election. PSOE will look to the far-left Podemos and other regionalist parties from Baque region, Valencia and some separatist parties from Catalonia, as reported by El Pais, while the centre right Partido Popular (19,3% winning 76 seats from the previous 131) is more keen to speak to Albert Rivera’s Ciudadanos (Liberals, ALDE), projected to be the third biggest party (17,7% and 55 seats) and to the real surprise of the Spanish political system in decades: the conservative Vox.

The party led by Santiago Abascal was founded in 2014 by former members of the Partito Popular and it is described as a right-wing and conservative party. In the regional election of Andalucía, Vox took 12 seats and it is projected to win 31 seats with 10,4% of consensus. This allowed a liberal-popular-right coalition to take power in the Southern region of Spain where the Socialists reigned for decades.

The far-left Podemos (GUE) is set to lose 31 seats down to 12.3% from 21% of consensus.

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