Who will govern Spain for the next 4 years?

Average of polls:

Schermata 2015-12-16 a 23.14.25

(Graphic by ECFR)

As you can see, the centre right party Partido Popular (EPP) is leading the polls without reaching the majority needed to govern (176 seats).

Possible scenarios:

  1. PP will need to form a coalition which could be with the centrist Albert Rivera’s Ciudadanos party (Rivera already ruled out any support to Mariano Rajoy’s party).
  2. Socialist Party (PSOE, PES), in the second place, will try to form a coalition with Ciudadanos. But also in this case Albert Rivera, leader of Ciudadanos, ruled out  this possibility.
  3. PSOE will form a coalition with Podemos. Even this possibility is unlikely because Pablo Iglesias, leader of Podemos, excluded any help to PSOE.

 

To be noted: the majority of Ciudadanos voters are coming from Partido Poular. There is a possibility that centre-right voters will come back to PP if a possible extreme left coalition would become a real option.